Kansas City Royals fans are a buzz these days, particularly about the farm system.
The system includes guys like Wil Myers, Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Mike Montgomery, Chris Dwyer and other “hot prospects.”
It’s been referred to in recent weeks as the “best farming system in a decade.” Most if not all baseball publications have ranked the Royals’ farm as the best for 2010 and 2011.
Exciting indeed.
Just a few years ago, the Royals were highly contractable. Finally we have hope.
However, are some fans banking on the farm system way too much?
Reed MacPhail of Fangraphs.com did a comparison of the Royals farm system to other top farms of the past 10 years. He did this in December, so it’s a little dated. However, it was after the Zack Greinke deal, so the timeliness isn’t too bad.
MacPhail concludes the 2006 Los Angeles Dodgers, 2007 Tampa Bay Devil Rays and the 2006 Arizona Diamondbacks are comparable farms to the Royals.
Two points about that:
- Both the Diamondbacks and Dodgers were below .500 last year and look in bad shape for next year.
- Successes for the Dodgers, Devil Rays and Diamondbacks did not come just because of the farm. The Los Angeles Dodgers made back-to-back National League Championship Series in large part to one Manny Ramirez. For all the crap Man-Ram got, he’s perhaps the best hitter over the past decade. He’s arguably the most clutch postseason hitter in the last 20 years. Man-Ram lit a spark under those Dodgers the first 1.5 years he was there. Tampa Bay also used good trades and smart free agency pickups, although their farm definitely helped their rise. The Diamondbacks have really not not much except make terrible transactions.
So, what does this mean for the Royals?
- It means Kansas City will still have to make some smart free agent signings.
- It means Kansas City will need to make some valuable trades at a timely situation.
A fair question, even coming from a big Dayton Moore supporter:
When’s the last time the Royals made an effective trade or free agent signing?
Gil Meche? Nah. Jose Guillen? Nope.
In a little bit of irony, Moore’s best trade so far may have been dumping Danny Cortes for Yuni Betancourt, who was actually pretty good at the plate last year. Or, perhaps it was trading a murderer for Brian Bannister, even if Bannister is now Speaking Japanese.
Still, while Moore has proven to be a hell of scout and a great general manager when it comes to drafting, the Royals still have not done a good enough job trading or signing free agents.
Regarding the Zack Greinke trade, there were some mixed opinions. Even one of Kansas City’s most beloved sports commentators expressed some doubts.
Plus, whenever I see the “Kansas City Royals sign…..” sentence start running across the bottom bar on ESPN, I get flashbacks to horrible signings over the course of the past three or four years.
This is not meant to pick at the Royals.
However, it’s meant as a cautionary tale. We should not just count on these prospects to bring us success. Odds are, there will be only three to four bonafied all-stars in any solid to great class.
That’s still a nice, nice turnout.
But you need more than just three or four players to build a ballclub.
The Royals, like the Minnesota Twins have done, will have to make some smart transactions the other 364 days of the year too besides the MLB Draft.
Kansas City’s on the right track finally – but don’t just bet on the farm.
